There has always been a tendency to discount Trump. He has however shown a surprising resilience. He has a vision for where he wants to go. I do not subscribe to that vision. However, there is value in analysing his moves. For the current day events and decisions are historical for better or for worse and will likely impact the world as we know it for years to come.
Trumps motivation for enacting the tariffs are quite transparent. They are:
- Strengthening the industrial base of America.
- Raising revenues.
- Pressuring other countries to enact taxation or other changes which will benefit the U.S one way or the other.
- Weakening competitors to the U.S.
- Balancing Trade.
The future is open. The degree of success or misadventure which Trump will achieve with these objectives depends very much on the reactions of other countries.
What is clear is that the decision making process in the U.S owes a lot to reality TV. For in many TV show contesters are assembled. The contestants compete for relatively small prizes. The competition between the contestants does however make for riveting viewing. The real money is made by the studios that produce the shows. Trump of course has a lot of experience of that sort of thing having hosted “The Apprentice” for 12 years. He also owned the Miss US and Miss Universe beauty pageant’s for about 20 years.
The way that the tariffs, as announced on the 2nd of April, were determined seems to owe a lot to that sort of TV .
The rate of tariffs enacted on goods from different countries varies widely. The stated justification seems rather dubious. What is clear is that the effect will be to sow divisions between countries. Some will try and negotiate, on their own, with the U.S. What is clear is that this will lead to a sort of beauty contest between countries . Countries will offer concessions to the U.S. Those that offer enough will be granted concessions, most likely minor. The beneficiary of all of this is likely to be the U.S.
Trump called the day of the announcement of the tariffs “liberation day”. The idea of liberation here seems to me to owe something to the ideas of the Friedrich Nietzsche . Nietzsche talked about the freedom of the powerful to free themselves from ethical limits and the norms of society.
There is a saying “All power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely”. To some extent that is what we are seeing here. The corruption which comes from power imbalances is coming into play.
So how should the rest of the world respond ?. Beyond the national responses and those of the EU , there should be a banding together of the liberal democracies around the world to create a fourth power with global reach. Probably based on the EU with other like minded countries. An alliance which would preferably have both economic and military strengths and which would also give due weight to environmental considerations. For with all respect to Trump he is an ephemeral leader who will depart the stage in due course. The real question is if that sort of behaviour is ultimately rewarded, even partially, or not. The saga of Trump has come about because of power imbalances. Deterring him and his successors in the US and elsewhere depends on rectifying the underlying power imbalances.
We are seeing ad hoc meetings and discussions between various countries around the world as to how they will react. Ad hoc agreements and arrangement have value in the short term. However what is really needed to change the power balance is, as I have mentioned above, a new alliance based on ethical considerations and the rule of law.
Jeffrey Glausiusz
